Are the Republicans in Trouble in 2018?

By OurPoliticsAndCulture

Since Trump became president, there have been 7 special elections in the United States Congress.

Six Republican seats were up for grabs and one Democratic seat. Republicans lost one seat and the Democrats retained theirs.

Out of the seven special elections, two are of note.

The first is the partisan switch in deep red Alabama to Democrat Doug Jones, which had some pointing their fingers at Trump and others at Bannon.

In reality, any Republican not being accused of making sexual advances to a 14 year-old would have won that race.

The second election of note is Georgia’s 6th, where the Democrats spent record amounts of money and pulled in money from all over the country only to lose to Republican Karen Handel.

You would have thought the Democrats learned from the 2016 election that money can’t buy you an election.

Alone, what these special elections tell us thus far is that the status quo in Congress – which is Republican control – will be tested and it will prevail unless something deeply unsettling occurs like in the case of Roy Moore and the Alabama election.

However, there are other trends to observe that should motivate you to get out and vote if you are Pro-MAGA.

Democrats Have Taken 39 Seats Away From Republicans Since Trump’s Election, But this Mainly Occurred at the State Level

As stated, these 39 takeaways have mainly occurred in state races.

For example, Democrats picked up 15 seats in the Virginia statehouse race.

Notably, also, the Republicans lost the New Jersey Governor’s office. These are both safely called blue states.

Although we don’t want to lose these state races, it is not necessarily indicative of a “Blue Wave”.

Polls Show a Negative View of  Country’s Direction and Republicans – But Let’s Take That With A Grain of Salt

So we all know how inaccurate polls can be – see the 2016 presidential election.

Still, it doesn’t mean we should completely ignore them.

According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, most folks have thought the country is on the wrong track since 2009, which is as far back as the poll goes (at least that I could find).

The current number says around 55% think we are on the wrong track and around 37% say we are on the right track.

That is nowhere near the record low where about 76% thought the country was going in the wrong direction in October of 2011.

This poll under Trump actually looks better than Obama with less people thinking we are on the wrong track and more thinking we are on the right – generally speaking. But it’s not league’s better and folks still think we are on the wrong track.

The poll doesn’t place blame so it’s hard to equate it to election results. During the life of this poll (post 2009), as I explain below, Republicans have been winning elections in great numbers.

So what are the polls saying about the 2018 vote?

The 2018 Real Clear Politics average for the General Congressional Vote currently gives the Democrats a sizable lead of 6.9%.

For comparison, the 2014 Real Clear Politics average for the Generic Congressional Vote gave the Republicans a 2.4% lead compared to a 5.7% realized spread at the ballot box.

And in 2016, RCP average for this poll was +.6 for Democrats, and the results were +1.1 for the Republicans.

Thus, the polls tend to be inaccurately favorable to the Democrats (or unfavorable to the Republicans). However, a 6.9% difference is still greater than the 3.3% miss RCP had in 2014 for Generic Congressional results.

In fact, RCP only had Clinton winning the 2016 popular vote by 3.3%. She won the popular vote by 2.1% It only missed by 1.2% there.

The People Have Rejected The Left’s Politics for the Past Eight Years

The Obama Years Saw Many Democrat Losses in the House and Senate.

The trend in Congress shows that this country has been running away from the Left and Obama’s politics.

Obama’s first Congress had 57 Democrats, 2 independents, and 41 Republicans in the Senate. In the House, there were 255 Democrats and 179 Republicans.

In contrast, Obama’s last Congress had 52 Republicans (+11), 2 Independents (break even), and 46 Democrats (-11) in the Senate. In the House, there were 241 (+62) Republicans and 194 Democrats (-61).

Over the Obama years, Republicans stormed through Congress, making 11% gains in the Senate and 14% gains in the House.

The biggest rejection was, obviously, the election of Trump.


In sum, don’t believe the hype: a blue wave isn’t on the horizon. And if it is, it’s a baby wave compared to the Red Tsunami that took place during the Obama years.

All is not lost, MAGA nation. But there are some worrisome trends. The Democrats are on pace to take some seat in Congress from the Republicans.

Keep in mind: Trump won because of voter turn out. MAGA showed up, the left didn’t.

Democrats are energized to stop the MAGA movement.

They are so desperate there have been soft coup attempts, year long investigations over Russian internet trolls, and complete turnarounds for many Democrats on illegal immigration (anything to oppose Trump).

MAGA nation better turn out to vote once again. And you have to get loud on social media and in your community to espouse it’s benefits or it will get drowned out by the surging left.

It’s hard enough to get anything done with swamp Republicans; it’ll be harder with swamp Democrats.


Originally posted here.

By |2018-02-24T01:17:46+00:00February 24th, 2018|Commentary|

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